Search results for " booms and busts."

showing 3 items of 3 documents

Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle

2017

We assess the spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle using quarterly data for 20 net oil-exporting and -importing industrial countries, and employing continuous- and discrete-time duration models. We do not uncover a statistically significant difference in the average duration of booms and normal times in the housing markets of those net oil-importers and net oil-exporters. Similarly, the degree of exposure to commodity price fluctuations does not seem to significantly affect the housing market cycle. However, we find that housing booms are shorter when oil prices increase than housing busts when oil prices decrease. We also show that the net oil-importers are more vulne…

Economics and EconometricEconomics and EconometricsAverage durationLabour economicsHousing booms and bustsCommoditySocial SciencesNormal timeBoomOil pricesHousing booms and bust0502 economics and businessEconomics050207 economicsDuration (project management)E51E52health care economics and organizationsE32Normal times050208 financeDuration analysi05 social sciencesSignificant differenceCiências Sociais::Economia e GestãoEnergy (all)General EnergyC41Duration analysis8. Economic growthOil price:Economia e Gestão [Ciências Sociais]Energy Economics
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Booms, Busts and normal times in the housing market

2015

We assess the existence of duration dependence in the likelihood of an end in housing booms, busts, and normal times. Using data for 20 industrial countries and a continuous-time Weibull duration model, we find evidence of positive duration dependence suggesting that housing market cycles have become longer over the last decades. Then, we extend the baseline Weibull model and allow for the presence of a change-point in the duration dependence parameter.We show that positive duration dependence is present in booms and busts that last less than 26 quarters, but that does not seem to be the case for longer phases of the housing market cycle. For normal times, no evidence of change-points is fo…

Statistics and ProbabilityEconomics and EconometricsHousing booms and bustsSocial SciencesDuration dependenceBoomWeibull modelEconomicsDuration (project management)Baseline (configuration management)Weibull distributionScience & TechnologyActuarial scienceCiências Sociais::Economia e Gestãohousing booms and busts duration analysis Weibull model duration dependence change-pointsSettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaDuration analysis8. Economic growthChange pointsChange-pointsDemographic economics:Economia e Gestão [Ciências Sociais]Statistics Probability and UncertaintyDuration dependenceSocial Sciences (miscellaneous)
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Booms and busts in housing markets: determinants and implications

2009

This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It finds that 1) most recent housing booms have been very persistent and of a significant magnitude; 2) there appears to be a strong correlation between the persistence and magnitude of booms and subsequent busts; 3) economic costs (in terms of GDP losses during the post-boom phase) depend significantly on the magnitude and duration of the boom and money and credit developments during that period; 4) a numb…

house prices housing market booms and busts.Settore SECS-P/02 Politica Economica
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